Keywords: 
• ecology /
• ecological security warning index /
• CA Model /
• Guiyang City

Abstract: Ecological security early warning refers to forecasting, analyzing, and evaluating the influence of human activities, such as construction, resource development, on the ecological environment and helps to determine trends and speed of change in regional ecological and environmental ecosystems. To provide reference materials for rational land use, regional urbanization, and ecological development for Huaxi District in Guiyang City, an ecological security early warning system was designed that combined ecological security and landscape ecology theories. Using inspection data from 2000 and 2010, Thematic Mapper （TM） images, the main data source, were combined with statistical data from socio-economic, demographic, traffic, and slopes of Huaxi District. Employing landscape fragmentation, isolation, dominance, and vulnerability, an ecological security warning index was developed for an ecological security early warning simulation that incorporated remote sensing （RS） and graphical information systems （GIS）. Results showed an ecological security situation that was in a state of flux with no pattern of change. With accuracy above 90%, the ecological security warning index simulation value was 2.36 in 2020 rising to 2.50 in 2030 meaning a deterioration in ecological security. Thus, this study could provide information to help maintain ecological security and to avoid ecological risk during industrialization and urbanization of Huaxi District.［Ch, 2 fig. 1 tab. 21 ref.］