Factor decomposition study of farmland change in Zhejiang Province
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摘要: 为了分析在经济发展过程中耕地变化的原因，寻找耕地流失的根源，从而寻求有效的减缓耕地流失的途径，基于对数平均权重的迪氏分解（Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index，LMDI）方法，利用1995－2013年浙江省的社会经济数据和土地利用数据，构建相应分析因素模型，对土地利用结构，土地利用强度，人均国内生产总值（GDP）和人口等指标因素进行分析。结果表明：截至2013年浙江省土地利用结构和土地利用强度因素的累积效应为负值，人均国内生产总值和人口因素的累积效应为正值。从逐年效应来看，土地利用强度是耕地减少的最大因素，人均国内生产总值对耕地减少具有较强的抑制作用，进而提出制定严格土地政策，合理改善浙江省经济发展方式，提高土地资源利用效率，在科学的土地利用规划指导下推进城市化的可行选择，为浙江省耕地变化工作提供政策启示。图1表3参15Abstract: In order to identify the causes of changing situation of farmland and the cause of land shortage in the process of economic development, and find effective solutions to the loss of farmland, the research used Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index （LMDI） method to analyze the socio-economic data and land use data of Zhejiang Province between 1995 and 2013. A factor analysis model was built to analyze the index factors including the land use structure, the land use intensity, per capita GDP and population. The results indicated that, by the end of 2013, the cumulative effect of the land use structure and the land use intensity was negative; the cumulative effect of per capita GDP and population factors was positive. Judging by the yearly effect, land use intensity was the biggest factor of reducing farmland; the per capita GDP had strong inhibitory effect on farmland reduction. The paper put forward rigid land policy to reasonably improve the pattern of economic development and the utilization efficiency of land resources in Zhejiang Province, and provide feasible urbanization plans and policy implications for farmland change in Zhejiang Province.［Ch, 1 fig. 3 tab. 15 ref.］
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https://zlxb.zafu.edu.cn/article/doi/10.11833/j.issn.2095-0756.2015.06.017
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