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摘要: 浙江省是松材线虫Bursaphelenchus xylophilus病危害最为严重的省份之一,松材线虫病的防治常滞后于病害的发生及危害。为更好地预测松材线虫病的发生及危害,对浙江省宁海县2004 - 2008年松材线虫病发生情况进行了监测,结合当地相关气象因子,利用Statistics Analysis System(SAS)软件筛选出影响松材线虫病发生程度的显著相关因子为:平均每公顷枯死树(x3),7月中旬天牛羽化数(x9),7月平均气温(x26)。采用逐步回归的分析法,建立浙江省松材线虫病发生程度的预测预报模型y=0.300 67+1.578 97x3-0.012 22x9+0.001 84x26。图1表3参11Abstract: To better predict pine-wilt disease in Zhejiang,one of the provinces with a serious problem in disease prevention often lagging behind occurrence and harm,the disease was monitored from 2004 - 2008 and combined with meteorological data for Ninghai,Zhejiang using the Statistical Analysis System(SAS)to determine the variables affecting the degree of pine-wilt disease the most. Then,stepwise regression was employed to produce a forecasting model. Results showed that dead trees per hectare(x3),mid-July longicorn feather number (x9),and average temperature in July (x26) were significant (P<0.05)variables. The forecasting model with stepwise regression was: y = 0.300 67 + 1.578 97x3-0.012 22x9 + 0.001 84x26. This model will contribute to prevention countermeasures and provide technical support for sustainably controlling pine-wilt disease. [Ch,1 fig. 3 tab. 11 ref.]
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Key words:
- forest protection /
- pine-wilt disease /
- Monochamus alternatus /
- predict and forecast
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链接本文:
https://zlxb.zafu.edu.cn/article/doi/10.11833/j.issn.2095-0756.2011.05.015

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