Seasonal fluctuation characteristics and determinants of tourist flows of Mount Tianmu scenic area
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摘要: 季节性是经营森林型旅游景区面临的挑战之一。为准确把握景区客流季节性波动特征及影响因素，指导景区有效监控客流动态、保障游客体验质量，制定缩减淡旺季差异措施，基于浙江省天目山景区1997－2013年年度及2005－2013年月度游客接待数据，利用基尼指数、季节指数、TRAMO/SEATS方法、HP滤波法等方法，探讨天目山景区客流季节性波动特征及成因机制。结果表明：①天目山景区受经营管理体制改革事件的影响，客流年度的演变基本上呈现2个阶段，其中2004年之前属于起步发展阶段，2005年进入企业特许经营之后，进入快速增长阶段。其中1998年、2003年受突发事件影响，呈现2个低谷。②年内客流变化呈现三峰三谷形态，季节性不均匀，淡旺季差异明显，呈现冬冷夏热特征；③气候条件、公共假期制度、游客出行习惯等因素是天目山景区季节性波动特征变化的重要因素。同时注意到，旅游地发展阶段和门票价格会影响景区客流的年际变化。最后，针对气候因素是影响森林型旅游地客流波动的主导因素及由季节性引起的淡旺季差异将继续存在的趋势，建议天目山景区对外通过联合其他景区形成大区域的旅游产业集聚，降低季节性风险；对内不断强化自然资源特色，培育景区发展的多维动力，形成多元驱动的旅游地成长机制，促进森林旅游地的可持续发展。图4表3参38Abstract: Seasonal fluctuation is one of the challenges for the management of forest scenic areas. To understand the seasonal fluctuation characteristics and determinants of the tourist flows in Mount Tianmu, guide the effective monitoring of tourists flows, guarantee quality of visitors experience, and adopt promotion measures for narrowing the season difference, the research examined the annual tourists data of Mount Tianmu between 1997－2013 and the monthly tourists data between 2005－2013, with Gini index, seasonal index, TRAMO/SEATS method and HP filter, to study the tourist flow characteristics and cause mechanism of seasonal fluctuations of the forest scenic area. The results were as follows: （1） Affected by the institutional reform on the operation and management, the evolution of annual tourist flows of Mount Tianmu could be basically divided in two stages, the early development stage （1997－2004） and the rapid growth phase （after the enterprise franchise in 2005）. Influenced by the two crises happened in 1998 and 2003, the tourist flows in these two years hit a record low. （2） The annual fluctuations of the tourist flows were characterized by three peaks and three troughs, with an uneven seasonal distribution. Seasonal differences were significant, summer being the busy season and winter the low season. （3） Weather conditions, public holidays system, tourists travelling habits were all important determinants of seasonal fluctuations of Mount Tianmu tourists flows. Whats more, the development stages of scenic areas and the ticket prices would affect the annual fluctuations of the tourist flows. Based on the fact that the weather conditions were the leading factor of fluctuations of tourist flows of forest scenic areas and the seasonal differences would be constant, the paper proposed that Mount Tianmu should not only ally with other scenic areas to form a large scale tourism industrial cluster to reduce the seasonal risks, but also enhance the features of natural resources of Mount Tianmu to develop a multi-drive tourism growth mechanism and promote sustainable development of forest scenic area.［Ch, 4 fig. 3 tab. 38 ref.］
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Key words:
- forest tourism area /
- seasonality /
- tourist flows /
- fluctuation /
- influence factor /
- Mount Tianmu
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链接本文:
https://zlxb.zafu.edu.cn/article/doi/10.11833/j.issn.2095-0756.2015.06.019
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