Spatial and temporal evolution of Nanjing’s urban green space pattern and its influencing factors
-
摘要:
目的 市域绿地不仅是区域生态环境的重要组成部分，也是城郊游憩的重要承载空间和约束城市无限蔓延的结构性空间。南京是长江三角洲地区的特大城市，南京市域绿地对于长江三角洲地区的可持续发展具有重要作用。研究南京市域绿地动态景观变化及其影响因素有助于进一步实现南京绿地空间结构优化以及区域可持续发展。 方法 选取2000、2005、2010、2015、2020年5个时间节点的南京市土地覆盖数据，运用动态度计算和景观格局指数分析南京市域绿地格局时空演变规律，利用偏最小二乘回归方程(PLSR)模型探究社会经济因素和自然因素对绿地格局演变的影响作用。 结果 2000—2020年，南京市域绿地面积整体上呈先减后增的状态。2000—2005年，南京市域绿地斑块趋于整体化，绿地景观破碎度有所缓和。2005年后市域绿地规模有所增加，但破碎化趋势明显，整体景观连接度也持续降低。回归模型显示：社会经济因素中产业结构比例以及建成区绿化面积和市域绿地格局变化有较大关联性，自然因素作用力大小存在差异。 结论 南京市域绿地规模总体有所增加，格局破碎化趋势明显。社会经济影响因子是市域绿地空间格局演变的直接影响力，自然因素多对绿地格局呈限制作用，亟需加强针对区域绿地的系统性规划。图5表6参29 Abstract:Objective The urban green space is not only an important part of the regional ecological environment, but also an important bearing space for suburban recreation and a structural space that restricts the infinite spread of the city. Therefore, this study, with an investigation of the dynamic landscape changes of green space in Nanjing, a mega city in the Yangtze River Delta and its influencing factors, is aimed to help further optimize the spatial structure of green space and regional sustainable development. In Nanjing so as to promote the sustainable development of the Yangtze River Delta region. Method With the land cover data of Nanjing City in five time nodes in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 selected, an analysis was conducted of the spatio-temporal evolution pattern of the green space in Nanjing City employing dynamic degree calculation and landscape pattern index. Then, the partial least squares regression equation (PLSR) model was adioted to explore the impact of socioeconomic factors and natural factors on the evolution of green space pattern. Result From 2000 to 2020, there was first a decrease and then an increase in the green space in Nanjing. From 2000 to 2005, the green space patches in Nanjing City tended to be integrated, with the fragmentation of green space landscapes easing up. After 2005, the scale of urban green space has increased, with an obvious fragmentation trend and a steady decrease in the overall landscape connectivity, The regression model showed that among the socioeconomic factors, the proportion of the industrial structure, the green area of the built-up area and the changes in the urban green space pattern had a greater correlation, and there were differences in the force of natural factors. Conclusion The overall scale of green space in Nanjing has increased with an obvious trend of pattern fragmentation and the socioeconomic factor being the direct influencing factor in the evolution of urban green space spatial pattern which is subject to the restriction of many natural factors. There is an urgent need to strengthen systematic planning for regional green spaces. [Ch, 5 fig. 6 tab. 29 ref.] -
Key words:
- Nanjing /
- urban green space /
- landscape pattern /
- temporal and spatial evolution /
- influencing factors
-
图 2 2000—2020年南京市土地利用分类示意图
Figure 2 Land use classification map in Nanjing from 2000 to 2020
图 3 2000—2020年南京市域土地利用面积变化对比图
Figure 3 Comparison of land use area changes in Nanjing City area from 2000 to 2020
图 4 各影响因素对南京市域绿地面积的PLSR分析
Figure 4 PLSR analysis of each influencing factor on the green space area of Nanjing
图 5 各影响因素对南京市域绿地景观格局指数的PLSR分析
Figure 5 PLSR analysis of each influencing factor on the landscape pattern index of Nanjing’s urban green space
表 1 2000—2020年南京市土地利用分类图精度验证统计表
Table 1. Accuracy verification statistics of Nanjing land use classification map from 2000 to 2020
年份 总体分类精度/% Kappa系数 2000 93.3 0.88 2005 93.3 0.89 2010 92.0 0.85 2015 89.0 0.83 2020 91.3 0.87 
下载: 导出CSV
表 2 南京市域绿地演变的影响因子
Table 2. Influencing factors on the evolution of Nanjing’s urban green space
分类 编号 影响因子 单位 自然因素 1 年降水量 mm 2 年平均气温 ℃ 3 全年日照时长 h 4 总水资源量 亿m3 社会经济要素 5 地区生产总值 亿元 6 人均国内生产总值(GDP) 万元·人−1 7 第一产业产值比例 % 8 第二产业产值比例 % 9 第三产业产值比例 % 10 农林牧渔业总产值 亿元 11 建成区绿化面积 hm2 12 常住人口数量 万人 说明：自然因素数据来源于《南京市统计年鉴(2001—2021)》《江苏省统计年鉴(2001—2021)》，社会经济要素数据来源于《江苏省统计年鉴(2001)》《南京市统计年鉴(2006—2021)》
下载: 导出CSV
表 3 不同时期南京市域绿地规模变化
Table 3. Changes of green space scale in Nanjing during different periods
土地类型 2000—2005年 2005—2010年 2010—2015年 2015—2020年 2000—2020年 变化量/
km2动态度/
(%·a−1)变化量/
km2动态度/
(%·a−1)变化量/
km2动态度/
(%·a−1)变化量/
km2动态度/
(%·a−1)变化量/
km2动态度/
(%·a−1)林地 −72.47 −2.10 72.78 2.35 12.10 0.35 104.73 2.97 117.14 0.85 草地 −86.77 −11.46 −6.94 −2.15 −1.48 −0.51 −9.99 −3.55 −105.18 −3.47 市域绿地 −159.24 −3.78 62.84 1.93 10.62 0.28 94.74 2.49 11.96 0.07 说明：正值表示该类用地面积呈正向增长；负值表示该类用地面积呈负向减少
下载: 导出CSV
表 4 市域绿地景观格局指数统计
Table 4. Pattern index statistics of urban green space landscape
年份 斑块数
量/个边缘密度/
(m·hm−2)景观形
状指数连接度
指数香农多样
性指数2000 2 130 9.012 21.525 99.987 0.385 2005 2 993 8.456 19.984 99.987 0.334 2010 6 635 9.618 22.298 99.986 0.355 2015 5 393 9.160 21.369 99.986 0.358 2020 7 690 11.642 26.405 99.986 0.386
下载: 导出CSV
表 5 市域绿地规模与各影响因素的偏最小二乘回归结果
Table 5. Results of partial least squares regression of urban green space scale and each influencing factor
影响因子 变量投影重要性(VIP) 回归系数(RC) 年降水量 0.80 0.17 年平均气温 1.16 0.35 全年日照时长 0.89 −0.23 总水资源量 1.02 −0.18 地区生产总值 0.75 0.10 人均GDP 0.74 0.08 第一产业产值比例 1.79 0.44 第二产业产值比例 0.83 −0.20 第三产业产值比例 0.77 0.02 农林牧渔业总产值 0.74 0.03 建成区绿化面积 1.24 −0.23 常住人口数量 0.71 0.003
下载: 导出CSV
表 6 市域绿地景观格局指数与各影响因素的偏最小二乘回归结果
Table 6. Results of partial least squares regression of urban green space landscape pattern index with each influencing factor
影响因子 斑块数量 边缘密度 景观形状指数 连接度指数 香农多样性指数 VIP RC VIP RC VIP RC VIP RC VIP RC 年降水量 0.99 0.08 1.21 0.10 1.23 0.09 1.06 −0.09 0.80 0.17 年平均气温 0.49 0.04 1.06 0.08 1.12 0.09 0.79 −0.07 1.14 0.35 全年日照时长 0.96 −0.08 1.22 −0.10 1.25 −0.10 1.07 0.09 0.88 −0.23 总水资源量 1.02 0.08 0.64 0.05 0.59 0.05 0.89 −0.08 1.01 −0.18 地区生产总值 1.04 0.08 1.09 0.09 1.10 0.08 1.10 −0.09 0.75 0.10 人均GDP 1.03 0.08 1.05 0.08 1.05 0.08 1.10 −0.09 0.74 0.08 第1产业产值比例 0.96 −0.08 0.53 −0.04 0.45 −0.03 0.61 0.05 1.80 0.45 第2产业产值比例 0.97 −0.08 1.09 −0.09 1.11 −0.09 1.13 0.10 0.83 −0.20 第3产业产值比例 1.07 0.09 1.03 0.08 1.01 0.08 1.08 −0.09 0.78 0.01 农林牧渔业总产值 1.04 0.08 0.98 0.08 0.96 0.07 1.08 −0.09 0.75 0.03 建成区绿化面积 1.08 0.09 0.82 0.06 0.78 0.06 0.89 −0.08 1.25 −0.23 常住人口数量 1.20 0.10 1.03 0.08 1.01 0.08 1.06 −0.09 0.71 0.00 说明：VIP为变量投影重要性；RC为回归系数
下载: 导出CSV
-
[1] 刘秉镰, 朱俊丰. 新中国70年城镇化发展: 历程、问题与展望[J]. 经济与管理研究, 2019, 40(11): 3 − 14. LIU Bingjia, ZHU Junfeng. Development of the People’s Republic of China in the past 70 years: process, problems and prospects [J]. Research on Economics and Management, 2019, 40(11): 3 − 14. [2] 商振东. 市域绿地系统规划研究[D]. 北京: 北京林业大学, 2006. SHANG Zhendong. Study on Municipal Administrative Areas’ Planning of Green Spaces’ System [D]. Beijing: Beijing Forestry University, 2006. [3] 殷柏慧. 城乡一体化视野下的市域绿地系统规划[J]. 中国园林, 2013, 29(11): 76 − 79. YIN Baihui. On urban green space system planning from the perspective of urban-rural integration [J]. Chinese Landscape Architecture, 2013, 29(11): 76 − 79. [4] MAHENG D, PATHIRANA A, ZEVENBERGEN C. A preliminary study on the impact of landscape pattern changes due to urbanization: case study of Jakarta, Indonesia[J/OL]. Land, 2021, 10(2): 218[2022-04-28]. doi: 10.3390/land10020218. [5] 其格乐很, 何秉宇, 黄玲. 基于GIS和Fragstats的城市绿地景观格局动态变化研究——以新疆乌鲁木齐市为例[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2019, 47(15): 72 − 77, 88. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2019.15.021 QIGELHEN, HE Bingyu, HUANG Ling. Dynamic change of urban greenbelt landscape pattern based on GIS and Fragstats: a case study of Urumqi, Xinjiang [J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2019, 47(15): 72 − 77, 88. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2019.15.021 [6] NOR A N M, AZIZ H A, NAWAWI S A, et al. Evolution of green space under rapid urban expansion in southeast Asian cities [J/OL]. Sustainability, 2021, 13(21): 12024[2022-05-01]. doi: 10.3390/su132112024. [7] 戴菲, 毕世波, 陈明, 等. 基于MSPA与混淆矩阵的绿地系统格局演化及其驱动因子研究——以伦敦为例[J]. 中国园林, 2020, 36(11): 34 − 39. doi: 10.19775/j.cla.2020.11.0034 DAI Fei, BI Shibo, CHEN Ming,et al. Research on green space system pattern evolution and its driving factors based on MSPA and confusion matrix: taking London as an example [J]. Chinese Landscape Architecture, 2020, 36(11): 34 − 39. doi: 10.19775/j.cla.2020.11.0034 [8] LIU Song, ZHANG Xinsu, FENG Yongjiu, et al. Spatiotemporal dynamics of urban green space influenced by rapid urbanization and land use policies in Shanghai [J/OL]. Forests, 2021, 12(4): 476[2022-05-01]. doi: 10.3390/f12040476. [9] 赵海霞, 王淑芬, 孟菲, 等. 绿色空间格局变化及其驱动机理——以南京都市区为例[J]. 生态学报, 2020, 40(21): 7861 − 7872. ZHAO Haixia, WANG Shufen, MENG Fei,et al. Green space pattern changes and its driving mechanism: a case study of Nanjing metropolitan area [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2020, 40(21): 7861 − 7872. [10] 顾余庆. 绿色空间与生态用地发展模式探讨——以南京市为例[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2013, 41(27): 11082 − 11083. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2013.27.074 GU Yuqing. Investigation of green space and development mode of ecological land in Nanjing [J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2013, 41(27): 11082 − 11083. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2013.27.074 [11] 胡勇, 赵媛. 南京城市绿地景观格局之初步分析[J]. 中国园林, 2004, 20(11): 37 − 39. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6664.2004.11.010 HU Yong, ZHAO Yuan. Analysis on the pattern of urban green land features in Nanjing [J]. Chinese Landscape Architecture, 2004, 20(11): 37 − 39. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6664.2004.11.010 [12] 宗良纲, 刘存丽, 董雅文. 南京市景观空间格局演变及驱动力分析[J]. 南京农业大学学报, 2006, 29(3): 49 − 53. ZONG Lianggang, LIU Cunli, DONG Yawen. Analysis of landscape spatial evolvement and its driving forces in Nanjing [J]. Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University, 2006, 29(3): 49 − 53. [13] 许浩, 李欢欣, 刘伟. 近15年南京都市圈区域绿地变化研究[J]. 西北林学院学报, 2021, 36(5): 215 − 222. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2021.05.33 XU Hao, LI Huanxin, LIU Wei. Evolution of regional green space in Nanjing metropolitan area in the past 15 years [J]. Journal of Northwest Forestry University, 2021, 36(5): 215 − 222. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2021.05.33 [14] LIU Wei, XU Hao, ZHANG Xiaotong, et al. Green infrastructure network identification at a regional scale: the case of Nanjing metropolitan area, China [J/OL]. Forests, 2022, 13(5): 735[2022-05-01]. doi: 10.3390/f13050735. [15] 邵大伟, 吴殿鸣. 基于景观指数的南京主城区绿色空间演变特征研究[J]. 中国园林, 2016, 32(2): 103 − 107. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6664.2016.02.023 SHAO Dawei, WU Dianming. Landscape pattern evolvement of green space: a case study of the central area of Nanjing [J]. Chinese Landscape Architecture, 2016, 32(2): 103 − 107. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6664.2016.02.023 [16] 石云峰. 南京城市边缘增长速率空间分异的驱动机制[D]. 南京: 南京大学, 2013. SHI Yunfeng. Driving Mechanisms of Differentiated Urban Growth Rates in the Urban Fringe Area of Nanjing [D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University, 2013. [17] 李发志, 朱高立, 姬超, 等. 基于不透水表面指数的城市扩张趋势及驱动机制分析——以南京市为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2021, 30(3): 575 − 590. LI Fazhi, ZHU Gaoli, JI Chao,et al. Analysis on the trend and driving mechanism of urban growth based on impervious surface index: taking Nanjing City for example [J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2021, 30(3): 575 − 590. [18] 李方正, 解爽, 李雄. 基于PLSR模型的北京市中心城绿色空间演变驱动机制研究(1992—2016年)[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2019, 41(4): 116 − 126. doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20180250 LI Fangzheng, XIE Shuang, LI Xiong. Evolutionary driving mechanism of green space in central Beijing City based on the PLSR model [J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2019, 41(4): 116 − 126. doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20180250 [19] WENG Huayan, GAO Yongchao, SU Xinyi, et al. Spatial-Temporal changes and driving force analysis of green space in coastal cities of southeast China over the past 20 years [J/OL]. Land, 2021, 10(5): 537[2022-05-01]. doi: 10.3390/land10050537. [20] AGUILERA F, VALENZUELA L M, BOTEQUILHA-LEITAO A. Landscape metrics in the analysis of urban land use patterns: a case study in a Spanish metropolitan area [J]. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2011, 99(3/4): 226 − 238. [21] DADASHPOOR H, AZIZI P, MOGHADASI M. Land use change, urbanization, and change in landscape pattern in a metropolitan area [J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2019, 655: 707 − 719. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.267 [22] 付凤杰, 刘珍环, 黄千杜. 深圳市福田区三维城市景观格局变化特征[J]. 生态学报, 2019, 39(12): 4299 − 4308. FU Fengjie, LIU Zhenhuan, HUANG Qiandu. Three-dimensional urban landscape pattern changes: a case study in the central business district of Futian, Shenzhen [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2019, 39(12): 4299 − 4308. [23] 刘宇, 吕一河, 傅伯杰. 景观格局-土壤侵蚀研究中景观指数的意义解释及局限性[J]. 生态学报, 2011, 31(1): 267 − 275. LIU Yu, LÜ Yihe, FU Bojie. Implication and limitation of landscape metrics in delineating relationship between landscape pattern and soil erosion [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2011, 31(1): 267 − 275. [24] 马明德, 马学娟, 谢应忠, 等. 宁夏生态足迹影响因子的偏最小二乘回归分析[J]. 生态学报, 2014, 34(3): 682 − 689. MA Mingde, MA Xuejuan, XIE Yingzhong,et al. Analysis the relationship between ecological footprint (EF) of Ningxia and influencing factors: Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS) [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2014, 34(3): 682 − 689. [25] 高惠璇. 两个多重相关变量组的统计分析(3)(偏最小二乘回归与PLS过程)[J]. 数理统计与管理, 2002, 21(2): 58 − 64. GAO Huixuan. Statistical analyses for multiple correlation variables of two sets (3) (Partial least-sguares Regression and PLS Procedure) [J]. Journal of Applied Statistics and Management, 2002, 21(2): 58 − 64. [26] 自然资源部. 自然资源部办公厅关于印发《国土空间调查、规划、用途管制用地用海分类指南(试行)》的通知(自然资办发[2020]51号)[EB/OL]. 2020-11-17[2022-11-29]. http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2020-11/22/content_5563311.htm. Ministry of Natural Resources. Notice of the General Office of the Ministry of Natural Resources on Printing and Distributing the ‘Guidelines for the Classification of Land and Sea Use for Land and Space Survey, Planning, and Use Control (Trial)’ (Natural Resources Office [2020] No. 51) [EB/OL]. 2020-11-17[2022-11-29]. http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2020-11/22/content_5563311.htm. [27] 于洋. 基于RS和GIS的区域LUCC的景观生态效应研究——以北京市密云为例[D]. 哈尔滨: 东北林业大学, 2014. YU Yang. Research on the Landscape Ecological Effects of Regional LUCC based on RS and GIS: A Case Study of Miyun in Beijing [D]. Harbin: Northeast Forestry University, 2014. [28] 赵海霞, 范金鼎, 骆新燎, 等. 绿色基础设施格局变化及其驱动因素——以南京市为例[J]. 生态学报, 2022, 42(18): 7597 − 7611. ZHAO Haixia, FAN Jinding, LUO Xinliao,et al. Changes of green infrastructure pattern and its driving factors: taking Nanjing as an example [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2022, 42(18): 7597 − 7611. [29] 季益文, 张浪, 张青萍, 等. 区域绿地概念形成脉络与深层发展研究[J]. 中国环境管理, 2021, 13(1): 88 − 95, 34. doi: 10.16868/j.cnki.1674-6252.2021.01.088 Jl Yiwen, ZHANG Lang, ZHANG Qingping,et al. Research on the formation and deep development of the concept of regional green space [J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Management, 2021, 13(1): 88 − 95, 34. doi: 10.16868/j.cnki.1674-6252.2021.01.088 -
-
链接本文:
https://zlxb.zafu.edu.cn/article/doi/10.11833/j.issn.2095-0756.20220332
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 49
- 被引次数: 0
