Occurrence and development of larch caducous disease with climate differences in the Xiaolongshan forest area，Gansu
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摘要: 利用气象资料进行病虫害预测预报研究主要以病虫害的发展趋势为主，森林病虫危害面积的气象预报预测研究并不多见。采用统计学方法，分析研究气候对落叶松早落病发生发展的影响及其危害面积的气象预测预报技术，对林业病虫灾害的预防工作具有显著的科技指导意义。研究表明：落叶松早落病适宜温暖湿润的气候环境，高温干旱不利病害的发生。冬前及冬、春季温暖并相对较为湿润气候有利病菌适期休眠、安全越冬和子囊孢子的产生；春末及夏季降雨适量，无明显的低温连阴雨和高温干燥天气的温暖湿润气候更有利于病菌子囊孢子成熟、飞散和侵染感病。经过对预测预报模型效果的历史回代拟合检验，1992－2007年16年生落叶松早落病实际危害面积与预测值平均绝对误差百分率4.7%，其中绝对误差5.0%以内预报准确率62.5%；绝对误差10.0%以内预报准确率87.5%。通过对2008，2009和2010年危害面积试报检验，3 a试报绝对误差分别为2.6%，7.8%和4.7%，预测和试报效果均较理想，可以为林业病虫灾害的预防工作提供科技指导。图1参15Abstract: This study analyzed the impact of the climate conditions to the larch early falls occurrence and development by used statistical method，weather forecasted the hazard area and guiding significance on forestry pest disaster prevention work. This article research showed that warm and humid climatic conditions suitable for larch early fall disease favored；whereas high temperatures and dry conditions is not conducive to the disease occurrence. Winter and spring warm and relatively humid climate favorable bacteria adaptation period of dormancy，safe over-wintering and ascospore produce；A warm and wet climate was more advantageous to ascospore maturity，distribute and infection rate. Through testing on the effect of the forecasting model，the forecasting larch early fall disease was 95.3% accurate，which included absolute error＜5.0% prediction accuracy rate of 62.5%，absolute error＜10.0% prediction accuracy rate of 87.5%. Absolute error of forecasting for 2008 was 2.6%，for 2009 was 7.8%，and for 2010 was 4.7%. The predict and test report met the needs of operational service，this model could provide guidance for forestry pest disaster prevention work. ［Ch，1 fig. 15 ref.］
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Key words:
- forest protection /
- climate /
- larch caducous diseases /
- occurrence and development /
- influence
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链接本文:
https://zlxb.zafu.edu.cn/article/doi/10.11833/j.issn.2095-0756.2013.02.018
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