Spatiotemporal evolution of ecological security pattern and its influencing factors in Tianshan-Pamir region
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摘要:
目的 天山-帕米尔地区以其独特的地理位置和丰富多样的生态系统，在中国生态安全方面发挥着重要的屏障作用，但近30 a来区域经济和生态环境发生了很大变化，开展基于自然及人为压力状态下天山-帕米尔地区生态安全格局时空演变及其影响因素研究，为区域生态保护、生态建设以及协同发展提供科学依据。 方法 以天山-帕米尔地区作为研究区，运用压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型以及地理探测器方法，选取20个关键指标，对天山-帕米尔地区1990—2018年的生态安全及其影响因素进行分析。 结果 天山-帕米尔地区区域生态安全的分布格局并没有发生显著变化，但不同市(县)的生态安全等级差异较大；1990—2018年天山-帕米尔地区生态安全处于Ⅲ级及以上的面积占比始终在60%及以上，2010年达80%，区域生态环境改善显著；其中有5个因子对天山-帕米尔地区生态安全的影响较为稳定，其他各因子的影响各有差异；3个子系统影响从大到小依次为响应、压力、状态，状态指数和压力指数变化趋势相似。 结论 天山-帕米尔地区生态安全状况逐步向好，但也存在一些生态破坏的现象。其中博乐市、精河县、温泉县、塔什库尔干塔吉克自治县生态安全状态改善显著，响应能力的提高对缓解生态压力具有较大贡献。图4表4参32 Abstract:Objective Tianshan-Pamir region, with its unique geographical location and rich and diverse ecosystems, plays an important role as a barrier to China’s ecological security. However, great changes had taken place in the regional economy and ecological environment in the past 30 years, and it is urgent to carry out research on the spatiotemporal evolution of ecological security pattern and its influencing factors in Tianshan-Pamir region under natural and human pressure. Method Taking Tianshan-Pamir region as the study area, 20 key indicators were selected to analyze the ecological security and its influencing factors in the region from 1990 to 2018 by using the pressure-state-response (PSR) model and geographical detector method. Result The distribution pattern of regional ecological security in this region did not change significantly, but the ecological security levels of different cities and counties varied greatly. From 1990 to 2018, the area with ecological security of level Ⅲ or above accounted for 60% or more and reached 80% in 2010, indicating significant improvement of regional ecological environment. 5 factors among them had a relatively stable impact on the ecological security of the region, while other factors had different impacts. The influence of the 3 subsystems from large to small was response, pressure and state, and the change trend of state index and pressure index was similar. Conclusion The ecological security in Tianshan-Pamir region is gradually improving, but there are still some damage phenomena. Among them, Bole City, Jinghe County, Wenquan County, and Tashkurgan Tajik Autonomous County have significantly improved their ecological security status, and the improvement of response capacity has a great contribution to alleviating ecological pressure. [Ch, 4 fig. 4 tab. 32 ref.] -
Key words:
- ecological security /
- PSR model /
- geographic detector /
- Tianshan-Pamir region
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图 1 天山-帕米尔地区生态安全时空格局示意图
Figure 1 Spatial and temporal pattern of ecological security in Tianshan-Pamir region
图 2 天山-帕米尔地区生态安全指数分级面积统计
Figure 2 Area statistic of classification by ecological security index in Tianshan-Pamir region
表 1 天山-帕米尔地区生态安全评价体系
Table 1. Evaluation system of ecological security in Tianshan-Pamir region
目标层 准则层 要素层 指标层 指标属性 生态安全综合指数 压力(P) 社会经济压力 人口密度/(人·km−2) 负 人口自然增长率/% 负 人均国内生产总值(GDP)/元 负 国内游客数量增长率/% 负 资源环境压力 单位耕地化肥使用量/(t·hm−2) 负 单位面积废水排放量/(t·km−2) 负 湿地覆盖率/% 正 状态(S) 社会经济状态 区域开发指数/% 负 经济密度/(万元·km−2) 负 旅行社数量增长率/个 负 资源环境状态 草地覆盖率/% 正 森林覆盖率/% 正 原煤消耗/(t·万元−1) 负 人均水资源量/(m3·人−1) 正 响应(R) 社会经济响应 旅游收入占GDP比例/% 负 第三产业占GDP比例/% 正 城镇化水平/% 负 拥有卫生技术人员/人 正 资源环境响应 单位面积环保投入/(万元·km−2) 正 自然保护区数量/个 正 
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表 2 天山-帕米尔地区生态安全分级标准
Table 2. Classification standard of ecological security in Tianshan-Pamir region
等级 安全等级 生态安全综合指数 生态安全特征描述 Ⅰ 不安全 [0.00~0.19) 压力极大，环境极差，存在严重生态环境问题 Ⅱ 较不安全 [0.19~0.23) 压力较大，环境较差，生态环境处于不稳定状态 Ⅲ 临界安全 [0.23~0.31) 压力接近阈值，环境一般，能发挥基本生态系统功能 Ⅳ 较安全 [0.31~0.49) 压力较小，环境较好，但仍存在部分限制性因素 Ⅴ 安全 [0.49~0.72) 压力很小，环境优越，生态系统功能、结构完善
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表 3 天山-帕米尔地区生态安全综合指数描述性统计
Table 3. Descriptive statistics of ecological security index in Tianshan-Pamir region
年份 生态安全综合指数 变异系数/% 平均值 最小值 最大值 标准差 1990 0.275 0.171 0.712 0.091 33.14 2000 0.277 0.140 0.523 0.095 34.34 2010 0.307 0.151 0.507 0.083 26.84 2018 0.297 0.165 0.529 0.094 31.82
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表 4 不同年份主要影响因子探测结果
Table 4. Detection results of main influencing factors in different years
影响因子 (X) q (Y) 1990 2000 2010 2018年 国内游客数量增长率 0.29 0.46 0.47 0.50 人均GDP − − 0.24 − 湿地覆盖率 0.45 0.23 − 0.22 人均水资源量 0.28 0.45 0.42 0.50 原煤消耗 0.29 0.46 0.47 0.51 旅行社数量增长率 − 0.26 − 0.34 旅游收入占GDP比例 0.29 0.46 0.467 0.51 第三产业占GDP比例 − 0.20 − − 拥有卫生技术人员数 0.29 0.47 0.48 0.51 自然保护区数量 − − − 0.66 说明：−表示q＜0.20
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